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The Sun Came Out Today...
Feb. 11th, 2008 02:33 pm![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
thecrazedhermit.livejournal.comWith pitchers and catchers ready to report in Lakeland on Thursday, I felt I'd be remiss if I didn't set down a few pre-Spring Training thoughts on our Boys in Blue.
Will's 2008 Detroit Tigers February Preview
The Lineup:
On the day our boys pulled off the trade of the young century, Cabrera and Willis for Maybin and Miller, I took a look at what will be, barring injury, our 2008 everyday lineup, here's what I found:
Key: Player - BA - HR - RBI - OPS
Curtis Granderson .302-23-74-.913
Placido Polanco .341-9-67-.846
Gary Sheffield .265-25-75-.840
Magglio Ordonez .363-28-139-1.029
Miguel Cabrera .320-34-119-.966
Carlos Guillen .296-21-102-.859
Edgar Renteria .332-12-57-.860
Jacque Jones .285-5-66-.735
Pudge Rodriguez .281-11-63-.714
In short, these nine guys combined to bat .309, hit168 home runs (more than 14 MLB teams), drive in 762 runs (more than 20 MLB teams) and carry an OPS of .862 (33 points higher than the Yankees, MLB leader in that stat, the most complete measure of offensive production). In short, the lineup has the potential to be historic. This is a team that can absolutely score 1,000 runs if things go well, and indeed if they stay healthy you almost have to expect it.
Defensively this group is strong, particularly up the middle (C, SS, 2B, CF). There is no one in the lineup that sticks out as a defensive liability, as long as everyone's healthy. Miguel Cabrera may not have the range you'd want in an ideal third sacker but when you stack up his stats against those of the man he replaces, Brandon Inge (.236-14-71-.688), it's a concession any team would make.
As for Inge, while I understand his desire to start elsewhere, I'm happy he's hanging around in Detroit. His athleticism and the occasional pop in his bat will make him an invaluable Super Sub. Not to mention his talent as a defensive catcher, which I expect will prove helpful this season if, as we've heard rumored, Vance Wilson isn't 100%. But the bottom line is this: he's a guy who'll play a lot for a team that essentially all the experts place among the top-5 World Series contenders. Better that than shooting a highlight reel no one will see at third for the Pirates.
The Rotation:
While the bullpen may be the biggest question mark going into the season (more on that later), the season hinges on the starting pitching. With Johan Santana mercifully gone to the Senior Circuit, Justin Verlander and CC Sabathia will now duke it out for the title of the AL Central's Ace of Aces. This could very well be the year, given the Tigers' prodigious offensive potential, Verlander wins 20 for the first time and takes home a CY Young. Barring injury, we know what we'll get from him. As for Kenny Rogers, assuming he's not hurt I believe we can expect 200 innings and 16 or so wins. He's wiley, he's crafty, he "knows how to pitch" (whatever that means). Nate Robertson, too, though unspectacular has started at least 30 games in each of the last four seasons, and that's something every team needs. He's the archetypal 12-12, 200 inning guy, and considering the rest of the rotation that's not a bad thing.
The success of the rotation, and thus the team, hinges on Jeremy Bonderman and Dontrelle Willis. These are two guys who are, I believe, in economics terms, "strong buys." Bondo was, once upon a time, going to be the Tigers' Ace of the Future and we almost saw it come about but, sadly, he's proven a mercurial and stupefyingly talented pitcher, starting last season 9-1 before fighting off injuries, getting shut down early, and finishing 2-8. He still can't shake his weird 1st inning bug, routinely digging a three or four run hole before setting down 12 or 15 in order over the next four or five innings. This is the season that will, I'm afraid, calcify his reputation, whatever that might be. A Curt Schilling-esque late-bloomer or never-really-was headcase. Either way, expectations for him have never really been lower, and I see him (again, if his arm holds up) having a fine season.
As for the D-Train: when the trade happened I found myself a little surprised that most of the talk seemed to focus on him as a bit of an afterthought. This is a guy who's fallen off more than a little after winning 22 games in 2005, but let's not forget that the Marlins often rode him hard and put him away wet. Over the last three seasons he's thrown 665 innings (that's 221.2 per year; for comparison, Bonderman has pitched 577.1 innings over the same time, 192/season) and been the guy that the Marlins (never a contender, but a scrappy team) have relied on as an Ace. That's an unfair spot, equivalent to rolling a rookie QB out as saving grace of a crappy NFL team. With a reduced workload and much more powerful offense, I expect the D-Train to get rolling (/obligatory) again. If he and Bondo can win 25-30 games between them, we'll see the Tigers in October without a doubt.
The Bullpen:
There's not much to say here because a lot of it will shake out in Spring Training. We know Todd Jones is the closer (love him or hate him, he's saved 115 games over the last three seasons) and Fernando Rodney (streaky but, I think, fundamentally solid) is the setup man. Joel
Zumaya, bless his heart, is never going to be healthy. He's a guy we'll read about in four years working on getting his velocity back at High-A Lynchburg ("He hit 98 on the gun today, Pirates officials think he could be on his way to AA Altoona within a couple weeks..."), so we can't count on him in the second half, despite what we hear. Some guys have to emerge, and I, for one, hope Jason Grilli winds up at Toledo. And stays there.
Will's 2008 Detroit Tigers February Preview
The Lineup:
On the day our boys pulled off the trade of the young century, Cabrera and Willis for Maybin and Miller, I took a look at what will be, barring injury, our 2008 everyday lineup, here's what I found:
Key: Player - BA - HR - RBI - OPS
Curtis Granderson .302-23-74-.913
Placido Polanco .341-9-67-.846
Gary Sheffield .265-25-75-.840
Magglio Ordonez .363-28-139-1.029
Miguel Cabrera .320-34-119-.966
Carlos Guillen .296-21-102-.859
Edgar Renteria .332-12-57-.860
Jacque Jones .285-5-66-.735
Pudge Rodriguez .281-11-63-.714
In short, these nine guys combined to bat .309, hit168 home runs (more than 14 MLB teams), drive in 762 runs (more than 20 MLB teams) and carry an OPS of .862 (33 points higher than the Yankees, MLB leader in that stat, the most complete measure of offensive production). In short, the lineup has the potential to be historic. This is a team that can absolutely score 1,000 runs if things go well, and indeed if they stay healthy you almost have to expect it.
Defensively this group is strong, particularly up the middle (C, SS, 2B, CF). There is no one in the lineup that sticks out as a defensive liability, as long as everyone's healthy. Miguel Cabrera may not have the range you'd want in an ideal third sacker but when you stack up his stats against those of the man he replaces, Brandon Inge (.236-14-71-.688), it's a concession any team would make.
As for Inge, while I understand his desire to start elsewhere, I'm happy he's hanging around in Detroit. His athleticism and the occasional pop in his bat will make him an invaluable Super Sub. Not to mention his talent as a defensive catcher, which I expect will prove helpful this season if, as we've heard rumored, Vance Wilson isn't 100%. But the bottom line is this: he's a guy who'll play a lot for a team that essentially all the experts place among the top-5 World Series contenders. Better that than shooting a highlight reel no one will see at third for the Pirates.
The Rotation:
While the bullpen may be the biggest question mark going into the season (more on that later), the season hinges on the starting pitching. With Johan Santana mercifully gone to the Senior Circuit, Justin Verlander and CC Sabathia will now duke it out for the title of the AL Central's Ace of Aces. This could very well be the year, given the Tigers' prodigious offensive potential, Verlander wins 20 for the first time and takes home a CY Young. Barring injury, we know what we'll get from him. As for Kenny Rogers, assuming he's not hurt I believe we can expect 200 innings and 16 or so wins. He's wiley, he's crafty, he "knows how to pitch" (whatever that means). Nate Robertson, too, though unspectacular has started at least 30 games in each of the last four seasons, and that's something every team needs. He's the archetypal 12-12, 200 inning guy, and considering the rest of the rotation that's not a bad thing.
The success of the rotation, and thus the team, hinges on Jeremy Bonderman and Dontrelle Willis. These are two guys who are, I believe, in economics terms, "strong buys." Bondo was, once upon a time, going to be the Tigers' Ace of the Future and we almost saw it come about but, sadly, he's proven a mercurial and stupefyingly talented pitcher, starting last season 9-1 before fighting off injuries, getting shut down early, and finishing 2-8. He still can't shake his weird 1st inning bug, routinely digging a three or four run hole before setting down 12 or 15 in order over the next four or five innings. This is the season that will, I'm afraid, calcify his reputation, whatever that might be. A Curt Schilling-esque late-bloomer or never-really-was headcase. Either way, expectations for him have never really been lower, and I see him (again, if his arm holds up) having a fine season.
As for the D-Train: when the trade happened I found myself a little surprised that most of the talk seemed to focus on him as a bit of an afterthought. This is a guy who's fallen off more than a little after winning 22 games in 2005, but let's not forget that the Marlins often rode him hard and put him away wet. Over the last three seasons he's thrown 665 innings (that's 221.2 per year; for comparison, Bonderman has pitched 577.1 innings over the same time, 192/season) and been the guy that the Marlins (never a contender, but a scrappy team) have relied on as an Ace. That's an unfair spot, equivalent to rolling a rookie QB out as saving grace of a crappy NFL team. With a reduced workload and much more powerful offense, I expect the D-Train to get rolling (/obligatory) again. If he and Bondo can win 25-30 games between them, we'll see the Tigers in October without a doubt.
The Bullpen:
There's not much to say here because a lot of it will shake out in Spring Training. We know Todd Jones is the closer (love him or hate him, he's saved 115 games over the last three seasons) and Fernando Rodney (streaky but, I think, fundamentally solid) is the setup man. Joel
Zumaya, bless his heart, is never going to be healthy. He's a guy we'll read about in four years working on getting his velocity back at High-A Lynchburg ("He hit 98 on the gun today, Pirates officials think he could be on his way to AA Altoona within a couple weeks..."), so we can't count on him in the second half, despite what we hear. Some guys have to emerge, and I, for one, hope Jason Grilli winds up at Toledo. And stays there.
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