Workday musings lead to big hypothetical question...

[thecrazedhermit.livejournal.com]

So I'm sitting here at work in "hurry-up-and-wait" mode, and my mind is wandering. Here's what I'm thinking about:

Our boys are playing .413 baseball so far this year. If they maintain that, they're on pace to finish the season 67-95 which would be the worst, certainly, since 2003 and would fit right in there in the 1997-2001 forgotten era when they sucked, but hadn't yet gotten historically bad.

Now, I'm not saying I think they'll be quite that bad when the season's over. Hell, if they get hot after the break and are still only 10-12 games back, anything could happen. But let's suppose, just for kicks, that they do finish with 65-70 wins. What happens?

At that point, I think the team finds itself in for a breakup. Leyland and his coaches get fired, and Dombrowski re-evaluates. Pretty much everyone (aside from Verlander and Cabrera and I'd imagine Polanco) gets put on the trading block to some extent, and they decide to go young, perhaps with a younger, up-and-coming skipper (like, say, Matt Walbeck).

I guess I'm probably wrong about this, but I can't imagine that if this $132 million team crashes and burns so badly that they'd just change skippers and run them back out. There's clearly something deeply wrong here, and if they struggle all season, never even close to the playoff race, I'm thinking they take it apart.

Thoughts?

Comments

[mileena.livejournal.com]

I don't even want to think about it *shudders*

[wheelerwoolsey.livejournal.com]

As this season goes on and the Tigers continue to lose...and Leyland looks more and more baffled by what's going on....and we look at the reality of what we're stuck with (Cabrera for the next 7 YEARS?! Gah!) I just don't see many good options at all. And now with all the focus on the Red Wings I have a bad feeling that Mr. Illitch will go back into his 1993-2005 mode of concentrating on the Wings at the expense of the Tigers.

[dodgers-pwn.livejournal.com]

i think Leyland will just retire rather than get fired, but either way, that's the end of his time here. I'd bet Gibson gets a shot, maybe Walbeck, maybe someone else entirely. Who knows.

This team is not going to get blown up, if by blown up you mean firesale, 98 Marlins type thing. But there could be some big changes, depending on how creative Dombrowski wants to get.

Honestly, I think this group of players is more than capable of winning, and this is more of just a horrifying aberration. Verlander is not a 5+ ERA pitcher. Cabrera is not a .270 hitter. And when every scout, every GM, and every analyst looks at the team and has no answers as to why this is happening, it's not a flawed team put together by an over-confident President. We're talking twilight zone shit here, I've never seen anything like it.

Anyway, in regards to the trading deadline/offseason, here are a few people who could get dealt.
Magglio is still clobbering the ball, so he doesn't have an albatross contract that would scare away other teams. I could see a team with an OF hole looking to make a push go after him. It would be an unpopular and bold move (I don't think I would do it), but DD could certainly get some value for him.
Guillen isn't doing so bad when you don't put him in the field. His contract is a little bulky but as long as he hits, he has value. I think he'd be a good guy to trade out sooner rather than later because you could still get some solid value in return.
Relievers are always in demand at the deadline and Jones isn't really necessary if we won't win games. He's first on my list to deal. Call up the Braves, see who they'll cough up.
Rogers and Robertson would be decent trade pieces if they can put some starts together. The Yankees need some filler in the rotation for sure.
Considering Leyland is possibly the only manager who would squander an OF who slugs .500 consistently, maybe someone out there will realize that Thames actually deserves a full time job, and trade for him too.

So, that's your list of value guys: Magglio, Guillen, Thames, Rogers, Robertson, Jones. Everyone else will be untouchable or hard to move. It depends how much Dombrowski would be willing to move, and what he would want in return. I don't see Magglio moving, but I didn't see Maybin getting dealt either. You never know.

[gunderdood.livejournal.com]

Hey, maybe the Braves would give us a starter named Jair and this outfielder named Gorkys. :P

If this team does go down, as is the base of this conversation, and Leyland does get moved out/retire as I think we all believe - mightn't we keep Thames so the next manager could give him some ABs.

I could see shuffling off some BP pieces presuming we haven't DFAd them all by the time the trade deadline comes around. Like you said, someone will need some arms, and if Rodney/Zumaya do put up good numbers in their returns, we'll, surprise surprise, have some arms to trade off other than just Jonesey.

The way I'm looking at it we have four positions that are cluttered (if you count OF as one and DH as one): OF, DH, 1B and, to an extent 3B. As much as I like Maggs, I think he's the best guy to trade, and I agree that Guillen is also a prime candidate. That clears up room for younger players in OF. Maggs clears up OF and potential DH/1B. Guillen going clears up all four of those positions in his current "I can't catch the ball anywhere I've tried yet, so let's try somewhere new" status. They're 1 and 2 in AVG/OBP/SLG (and consequently of course, OPS). I have to imagine someone will want those bats in their lineup at the deadline given their current status more than they'd want anyone else on the team given things stay stable.

[dodgers-pwn.livejournal.com]

Well those are just the guys that have value that Dombrowski would consider trading. I don't think they should trade Thames or Magglio, but they could if they wanted to.

I think they should showcase him for a few weeks and then immediately trade Zumaya when his value is at its peak. They could get a ton for him still, but that only applies if he's pitching strong in his return.

[gunderdood.livejournal.com]

do you think Zumaya will never produce like originally speculated? I know he hasn't gotten to 103, but I think he touched 100 or 101 in rehab.

If you think he will produce down the line, what would you hope we could get for trading the post-Jones closer?

[dodgers-pwn.livejournal.com]

I think he could return to form, I'm just getting a little leery of his history of dumbass injuries. Also, I think he's one of the few players on the team that is expendable but has high value. Obviously, the deal has to be very good to make sense. Otherwise I'd rather keep him.

[thecrazedhermit.livejournal.com]

I hope we don't have a "they just stop listening to you," Flip Saunders/Pistons situation on our hands. If they're a team of vets, and they've quit listening to Leyland, then would they listen to Gibby or Walbeck?

I agree with you, though. They're not having a firesale. And for the better.

[dodgers-pwn.livejournal.com]

i don't think they're tuning out Leyland, I just don't think he's saying anything to them. i think this group would respond better to someone who would instill more fire in the team. I wish the Sox had fired Ozzie Guillen in the offseason, I'd love to see him manage here. Gibby isn't a bad choice either, I can't really say anything about Walbeck's managerial style but I think Gibby would get them to dial up the intensity.

In any case, you gotta try something. Who knows if the Pistons will listen to Michael Curry, but we know they weren't listening to Flip.

[buckeyebrain.livejournal.com]

I'd rather have Gibby, and not just for biased reasons. I don't see Guillen getting another big-league job for years because of his blowups and his tendency to throw other people under a bus.

[dodgers-pwn.livejournal.com]

Guillen wins consistently. He'll always have a job lined up for him at this rate, especially if he wins the Central this year. But I don't see him as a serious candidate cause I doubt Kenny Williams is dumb enough to let him go.

[mu-krazy-sax.livejournal.com]

I think Leyland got in a lot of trouble last season with the higher-ups for all his verbage last year..... hence a bit more quiet version this year. That may not be it since he was never a fire-em-up every day kind of guy to begin with, but it just seemed like he said a lot more the last few seasons compared to this one.
We need Sparky back! Well at least Gibby played under Sparky and has a similar attitude that just might work.

[dodgers-pwn.livejournal.com]

everyone has a high fielding % from 1B cause of the sheer amount of putouts recorded, and the tendency of scorers to charge errors to the throwers of balls rather than the first baseman. Trust me, Guillen was moved from 1st because he wasn't right for that position. Cabrera plays infinitely better 1B.

Lopez is another guy who could get some value in a trade, probably about as much as Jones. With Zumaya you really have to balance the potential trade value (which, if he comes back throwing 98+, will be very high) versus the value of him as a closer and the risk of injury. I'm getting pretty sick of Zumaya's propensity to injure himself by being a dumbass, but I can see the other side.

In any trade, it's all about getting a guy who is going to make the team better in the very near future. Magglio would have to fetch a very solid rotation arm, as would Guillen or any other major player, to be worht trading. With the other guys, they should make sure the trade is worth it, because they aren't at the point where they need to trade guys for the sake of it. That's for cheap teams with shitty owners and fans.

[mu-krazy-sax.livejournal.com]

Zumaya has already been hitting 97-98 on the radar gun with decent accuracy. He pitched one inning in Toledo on Sunday. Rodney also pitched one inning giving up a solo home run but also striking out the side.
Isn't this the last year of Pudge's contract anyway?

[dodgers-pwn.livejournal.com]

yeah this is pudge's last year, which gives him a little trade value for a contender who wants him. I'm not quite sure why they would though, except for an injury or something.

[mu-krazy-sax.livejournal.com]

Yeah, at Pudge's age....... I wonder if the Tigs will bother to re-sign him, but then since we don't seem to have much catcher-wise in the minors that Im aware of, they may try to trade for someone that is at least younger for the next few seasons or so.

[dodgers-pwn.livejournal.com]

Yeah I mean that's the problem with trading Ordonez, and that's why I woudln't trade him. It's just a possibility depending on how DD wants to proceed.